Big leads in senate and governor races

Many county races have clear front-runners and are more likely to be determined by the qualities of the candidates rather than their party, according to opinion polls commissioned by the Nation Media Group.

The first wave of opinion polls carried out in five counties shows candidates with commanding leads and others where the frontrunner is not necessarily the choice of national politicians.

In Machakos county, Dr Alfred Mutua, the former government spokesman and now Cord politician, was a clear favourite among those polled, with 68.3 per cent saying they would elect him governor if the polls were held at the time of interview.

The interviews were conducted between 14 and 17 February with a margin of error of +/-2 per cent and a confidence level of 95 per cent.

In the senate race, Mr Johnstone Muthama, the former Kangundo MP, was the choice of three quarters of those polled, with 73 per cent saying they would have voted for him had the election been conducted at the time of the interview.

In the governor race, Dr Mutua’s closest challenger, assistant minister Wavinya Ndeti, who is running on a Chama Cha Uzalendo ticket, was the choice of 18.7 per cent of the respondents.

In the county that boasts of the multibillion Konza technocity, there are 10.2 per cent undecided voters, according to the poll by Infotrak Consulting. The pollster interviewed 631 people in the county.

In the Senate race, Mr Muthama’s closest challenger is Mr Boniface Kabaka of Ford People, being the choice of 11 per cent of those interviewed.

Some 11 per cent of the respondents were classified as undecided on which way to vote.

While Cord is leading in Machakos, Jubilee Coalition dominates both the senate and gubernatorial races in Nakuru county.

Former commandant of the Administration Police, Mr Kinuthia Mbugua, was supported by 75 per cent of those interviewed.

Most of those who preferred him said they did so because Mr Mbugua “had previously performed well”, “has good policies” and “has good administrative skills”. Other supporters said they will vote for him because he is “intelligent”.

Cord’s Lawrence Bomet of ODM had 16.4 per cent support while 6.3 per cent of the voters had not made up their minds at the time of the survey.

For the Senate, Mr John Kiarie was supported by 55.7 per cent of those interviewed by Strategic Research and PR, also contracted by the Nation Media Group.

Ms Jayne Kihara, the former Naivasha MP, was second with 10.4 per cent. Seven per cent of the voters were undecided.

Strategic interviewed 600 registered voters in Nakuru.

In the Meru senate race, Mr Kiraitu Murungi, Energy minister and former Imenti South MP, could be heading for a landslide with 93.3 per cent of those interviewed saying that they would vote for him.

Mr Murungi’s closest challenger is the fiery politician Gitobu Imanyara who, according to the pollsters, was supported by 6.2 per cent of respondents.

Mr Imanyara will be vying on the ODM ticket. ODM is a member of the Cord coalition.

Mr Murungi is vying on the ticket of the Alliance Party of Kenya.

For the gubernatorial race, assistant minister Peter Munya has a slim lead over his colleague in government Dr Kilemi Mwiria.

Mr Munya, according to the poll conducted by Strategic PR, had the support of 48.4 per of those interviewed, while Dr Mwiria had 43 per cent.

Mr Munya is in Kiraitu’s APK, while Dr Mwiria is in TNA, a member of the Jubilee coalition. The pollster interviewed 600 registered voters in Meru County.

In Siaya, Mr William Oduol of the National Agenda Party of Kenya is well positioned for a landslide in the gurbernatorial race.

According to Consumer Insight, which conducted an opinion poll in the county, Mr Oduol was supported by 68 per cent of those interviewed while Mr Rasanga Amoth of ODM (Cord) had the backing of 14 per cent of respondents.

Some 18 per cent of respondents were undecided. The pollster interviewed 557 registered voters in the county.

In Uasin Gishu, Mr Jackson Kiplagat Mandago of URP (the Jubilee Coalition) is the favourite for the governor’s seat with 62 per cent of those interviewed saying they would have voted for him.

Higher Education minister Margaret Kamar (Cord/ODM) was a distant second with the support of 27 per cent of those interviewed.

Uasin Gishu is the home county of Mr William Ruto, the presidential running mate of Jubilee coalition’s candidate Mr Uhuru Kenyatta.

For the Senate in Uasin Gishu, Mr Isaac Melly of URP was ranked tops with support of 58 per cent of those interviewed, while Abraham Kiptanui of Kanu comes second with 12 per cent.

The poll was conducted by Infotrak and involved interviews with 600 registered voters in Uasin Gishu.